Follow Gold in Forex Trading
Everyone wants to buy gold. Gold is the ultimate global currency. US Dollar used to be pegged to gold before 1973. But with the collapse of the Bretton Woods System that year, US Dollar was unpegged from gold. It became a freely floating currency. Free floating for a currency means the value of the currency is determined by the fundamentals of supply and demand.
Now US Dollar is only backed by the full faith and credit of the US Government. Most of the currencies in the world are free floating now. Many countries are also purchasing gold in the open markets as a hedge of their foreign reserves most of which are in US Dollar. In the present financial crisis with the global economy in recession, many investors are trying to take refuge in gold as the ultimate safe haven of their wealth from financial turmoil.
The Australian Dollar is known for its strong correlation with gold prices. Most of this is due to the amount of gold that Australia produces and exports. US Dollar has an inverse relationship with gold prices. When gold prices rise, US Dollar falls in value. This causes the currency pair AUD/USD to rise in value.
The opposite is also true. As the US Dollar gains value, gold usually loses value. So when gold prices are rising, we can execute long trades on AUD/USD. Likewise, when gold falls in value, we can sell short AUD/USD. This relationship provides us with a method to take advantage of the fundamental factors in forex markets. It may be due to the fact that gold is considered to be the ultimate safe haven by investors in times of financial crisis.
Entering a trade to follow gold is a three step process. We will use RSI (Relative Strength Index) as the technical indicator to trigger our trade. If you have read the previous article on following oil, we had used the CCI (Commodity Channel Index).
Why is that we are now using RSI instead of CCI when both gold and oil are commodities. It all comes down to how quickly the two indicators react to volatility. CCI gives a quicker signal which is good for relatively less volatile pairs. On the other hand, RSI gives slower signals. This is ideal for more volatile pairs like AUD/USD.
You should use a moving average to confirm if gold is in an uptrend or a downtrend. You will use the seven periods RSI on AUD/USD chart. Watch the RSI chart when it enters one of its reversal zones, then move back out of the reversal zone in the same direction as the gold is trending.
Enter a long trade on AUD/USD if the gold prices are rising and the RSI is crossing back above the 30 line. On the other hand, enter a short trade on AUD/USD pair if the gold prices are declining and the RSI is crossing below the 70 line.
Set a limit order of 200 pips and a stop loss order of 50 pips. This gives a risk to reward ratio of 50/200=1/4. 200 pips mean $2000 profit if the trade goes as you had anticipated. 50 pips stop loss means a $500 loss if the trade does not go in your favor. It is not uncommon to have a trade go against you only to find yourself right back in trade that goes your way. - 23211
Now US Dollar is only backed by the full faith and credit of the US Government. Most of the currencies in the world are free floating now. Many countries are also purchasing gold in the open markets as a hedge of their foreign reserves most of which are in US Dollar. In the present financial crisis with the global economy in recession, many investors are trying to take refuge in gold as the ultimate safe haven of their wealth from financial turmoil.
The Australian Dollar is known for its strong correlation with gold prices. Most of this is due to the amount of gold that Australia produces and exports. US Dollar has an inverse relationship with gold prices. When gold prices rise, US Dollar falls in value. This causes the currency pair AUD/USD to rise in value.
The opposite is also true. As the US Dollar gains value, gold usually loses value. So when gold prices are rising, we can execute long trades on AUD/USD. Likewise, when gold falls in value, we can sell short AUD/USD. This relationship provides us with a method to take advantage of the fundamental factors in forex markets. It may be due to the fact that gold is considered to be the ultimate safe haven by investors in times of financial crisis.
Entering a trade to follow gold is a three step process. We will use RSI (Relative Strength Index) as the technical indicator to trigger our trade. If you have read the previous article on following oil, we had used the CCI (Commodity Channel Index).
Why is that we are now using RSI instead of CCI when both gold and oil are commodities. It all comes down to how quickly the two indicators react to volatility. CCI gives a quicker signal which is good for relatively less volatile pairs. On the other hand, RSI gives slower signals. This is ideal for more volatile pairs like AUD/USD.
You should use a moving average to confirm if gold is in an uptrend or a downtrend. You will use the seven periods RSI on AUD/USD chart. Watch the RSI chart when it enters one of its reversal zones, then move back out of the reversal zone in the same direction as the gold is trending.
Enter a long trade on AUD/USD if the gold prices are rising and the RSI is crossing back above the 30 line. On the other hand, enter a short trade on AUD/USD pair if the gold prices are declining and the RSI is crossing below the 70 line.
Set a limit order of 200 pips and a stop loss order of 50 pips. This gives a risk to reward ratio of 50/200=1/4. 200 pips mean $2000 profit if the trade goes as you had anticipated. 50 pips stop loss means a $500 loss if the trade does not go in your favor. It is not uncommon to have a trade go against you only to find yourself right back in trade that goes your way. - 23211
About the Author:
Mr. Ahmad Hassam is a Harvard University Graduate. He is interested in day trading and swing trading stocks and currencies. Discover A Revolutionary New Forex Robot. Develop your own Forex Trading System.
posted by X - Men @ 1:08 AM
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