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Thursday, June 18, 2009

Fund Managers can become farmers-Jim Rogers

By Jim Faber

Jim Rogers was recently interviewed by The Economic Times. Among the topics covered include the recent rally in stocks, the widening deficit and his recent comments on Sri Lanka. In this interview, Jim Rogers touches on a couple of commodities that he believes will do well in this economy. As investors push oil and gold, Jim Rogers is looking at other commodities such as Silver, Cotton and Natural Gas.

If US unemployment touches the 10%-mark, it would further impact retail sales. How bad could this be for Asia?

Central banks all over the world have printed huge amounts of money, and the real economy is not strong enough for all this money to be absorbed so, its going into stocks and real assets such as commodities. Its a mistake what they are doing. Its giving short-term pleasure, but theres long-term pain as we are going to have much higher inflation, much higher interest rates and a worse economy down the road.

The American bond market is already beginning to go down dramatically as people realise that the American government has to sell huge amount of bonds, and secondly, there is going to be inflation, serious inflation, as it was always in the past when you had governments printing huge amounts of money.

Stocks are rising even as fiscal deficit is widening. Somewhere it has to snap

If US unemployment touches the 10%-mark, it would further impact retail sales. How bad could this be for Asia?

Stocks are rising even as fiscal deficit is widening. Somewhere it has to snap

They are doing many of the same mistakes now. Whats different this time is that we are printing huge amounts of money which they did not print at that time. So, we are going to have inflation this time.

Central banks all over the world have printed huge amounts of money, and the real economy is not strong enough for all this money to be absorbed so, its going into stocks and real assets such as commodities. Its a mistake what they are doing. Its giving short-term pleasure, but theres long-term pain as we are going to have much higher inflation, much higher interest rates and a worse economy down the road.

The American bond market is already beginning to go down dramatically as people realise that the American government has to sell huge amount of bonds, and secondly, there is going to be inflation, serious inflation, as it was always in the past when you had governments printing huge amounts of money.

What do you do? No politically-elected government can afford so much pain, unemployment and hardships

Its going to snap. Later this year, next year, we are going to have currency problems, maybe even a currency crisis. I dont know with which currency " maybe with the pound sterling, maybe with the US dollar, who knows. It maybe with something none of us have at the moment. When you have a currency crisis, stocks will be affected, many things will be affected. It is not sound, whats happening out there in the world.

In the 1930s, we had a huge stock market bubble which popped. And then politicians started making many mistakes. They became protectionist. They made solvent banks take over insolvent banks and then both banks failed in the end.

Throughout history, if you go to a place after the war ends you usually find everything as very cheap, everyone is demoralised, people are just depressed and there are enormous opportunities if you have energy.

I was trying to make a point that if anyone wants to invest in this particular part of the world, the best place would be Sri Lanka. Because it looks like the 30-year war is coming to an end.

And rarely do they produce. Its not the first time that the Congress party has been in the power. If they mean it, Indias going to be one of the greatest development stories in the next 20 years. But I dont know if they mean it.

If the pain comes in 2010, 2011 or 2012, there will be nobody he can blame. Especially, if things go bad later, the opposition will say, wait a minute, 2009 looked good. The next guy is going to say you did it But you are right. Its very difficult for an elected government. You have a newly-elected government in India. Whenever you have a new government they can take some of the pain.

And rarely do they produce. Its not the first time that the Congress party has been in the power. If they mean it, Indias going to be one of the greatest development stories in the next 20 years. But I dont know if they mean it. - 23211

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