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Sunday, August 23, 2009

Trading Strategy - Descending Triangles Downside Breakout

By Jeff Cartridge

Descending triangles are not so popular with traders on the long side and are best traded when it breaks in the downward direction. A descending triangle is defined by two lines, one on the lower boundary of the price movement which is horizontal and one on the upper side which slopes down.

Descending Triangles Profitable, No Surprise

The descending triangle does break down more than it breaks up with this occurring in 57% of the patterns. A downside breakout is profitable 45% of the time delivering an average profit of 0.92% in 9 days. A large number of downside breakouts (12.1%) return in excess of 10% gain.

Refine Your Entries

Short breakouts work better in falling markets which is clear from the results that were achieved in 2002 and 2008, so the market should be falling or consolidating. The best results are achieved trading descending triangles when the sector is falling. For some reason the trend of the sector at the start of the pattern is more important than the trend of the sector prior to the breakout.

A breakout from a descending triangle can occur anywhere on the way to the point of the pattern; it is not important exactly where the breakout occurs. The best trades occur when a down side break occurs after the stock bounces off the lower boundary and drops back before hitting the upper boundary.

If the volume supports the breakout the results are better. Supportive volume means the volume on the way down is higher than the volume on the way up.

Descending Triangles Extremely Profitable

You can improve your trading results by using a series of simple filters that have been outlined here. This select group of descending triangles delivers an average profit of 2.55% in 10 days and is profitable on 48% of the trades. Overall this makes descending triangles extremely attractive to trade.

Note: Statistics for this article have been provided by Patterns Trader after analyzing over 60,000 chart patterns on the Australian market from 2000 - 2008. - 23211

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